Opinion | Can US-Philippine-Japanese military ties really protect regional security?

Publish date: 2024-05-10
The emerging alliance between the Philippines, Japan and the US is an integral part of the Biden administration’s “integrated deterrence” strategy, especially amid growing fears of potential conflicts over Taiwan and the South China Sea. The summit is also meant to cement Japan’s position as a security provider, accelerate the Philippines’ military modernisation and “Trump-proof” the trilateral alliance in light of deepening concerns over American isolationism under a prospective second Trump presidency.Over the past decade, multilateralism largely lost its lustre on many fronts, especially in Asia. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has largely failed to live up to expectations, namely its earlier promise to become an engine of inclusive regional integration. The regional body has broadly failed to address major crises even in its own backyard, most notably the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. The negotiations over a code of conduct in the South China Sea, meanwhile, have remained broadly open-ended with little concrete results.Thanks to thick webs of economic interdependence and investment ties among Asian nations, however, there are reservations against any Nato-like military alliance. Instead, a growing number of regional states are embracing “multi-alignment”, refusing to side with any superpower against another, as well as various forms of “minilateral” cooperation, namely ad hoc, flexible, issue-specific cooperation among few like-minded powers.The Japan-Philippines-US trilateral grouping, however, is a relatively new phenomenon. In many ways, it’s the product of the dramatic shift in Philippine foreign policy under current president Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, who steadily pivoted towards the West shortly after a state visit to China in January 2023. Failing to secure major concessions from Beijing, the Filipino president began to double down on security cooperation with traditional allies.Encouraged by an earlier informal meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and US Vice-President Kamala Harris, Marcos Jnr publicly pressed for a trilateral security arrangement with both the US and Japan in 2023. Over the succeeding months, the three nations held drills among their coastguard forces, discussed joint patrols in the South China Sea, and held a high-level meeting among their top national security officials.The coming summit has three major objectives. To begin with, the three countries involved aim to tie in the Philippines into a broader American regional strategy, with a particular focus on Taiwan. After all, the Southeast Asian nation has military bases close to Taiwan’s southern shores and has gradually opened some of its prized facilities in northernmost islands of Cagayan and Isabela to the Pentagon under an expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

Although Marcos Jnr has equivocated on his country’s involvement in Taiwan, the trilateral summit is likely to turn the Philippines into an integral component of any joint US-Japan response to mainland Chinese kinetic action over the self-governed island.

In exchange, the Philippines is likely to seek expanded defence aid from its key allies. This brings us to the second key objective, namely reinforcement of Japan’s role as a major security player in the region. The Philippine ambassador to the US, Jose Manuel Romualdez, has revealed that Manila and Tokyo are set to arrange a rotational deployment of forces after the trilateral summit.

Japan’s foreign ministry has hailed the coming deal but denied reports of potential deployment of Japanese troops to Philippine bases, likely due to fears of political backlash, especially from the staunchly pacifist Komeito Party in the Japanese ruling coalition. In the meantime, Japan is likely to explore expanded drills with as well as exports of increasingly sophisticated weapons systems to the Philippines, with a focus on maritime security.

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Finally, the trilateral summit is also part of a shared fear of populist shocks in the future. In the US, Trump’s return to the White House next year has become a growing possibility, thus raising fears of a more isolationist American foreign policy. In the Philippines, the Beijing-friendly Duterte family has openly clashed with Marcos Jnr on foreign policy and current vice-president Sara Duterte is a favourite for the 2028 presidential election.On its part, the Kishida administration is on extremely shaky grounds, given the prime minister’s historically low approval ratings. Thus, the three leaders want security cooperation to cushion their defence alliance against any major reversals in the future.

Tighter security cooperation among the three allies, however, could have the paradoxical effect of further intensifying geopolitical tensions in the region. Concerned about strategic encirclement, it’s highly unlikely for China to just sit idly by. The emerging alliance between Japan, Philippines and the US is likely to only reinforce zero-sum geopolitical dynamics in Asia.

Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise

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